Space Insurer current view on COTS

Satellite population of the Study

• Type of satellites : Telecom GEO
• Manufacturers  : Western (6-majors)
• Launch date : after 1979
• Sufficient visibility from AXAXL

Available data

• Satellite design
• In-orbit anomalies
• Losses
• Covered by NDA

• Database of 5600 satellite.years and 74 equivalent.satellites failure

Reliability Statistics

Type of failed units

• Losses of electronic units have decreased
  • design / protection / testing / screening have improved

• How can COTS integrate lessons learned from “space designed” units ?

Cause of failure (Launches after 1995)

• Most issues are design related
• Design issues may appear late in life

• Would this be better, worse or different with COTS?
• REX: large scale on-ground vs small-scale in-orbit?

Type of failed system : with or without redundancy

• Single Point Failure : partial loss or total loss (typ SADM, depl mechanism, LAE)
• Redundancy : lack of redundancy
• System : affecting all units
• Graceful degradation (typ. SA string, battery cell)

• Given the uncertainty on COTS reliability :
  • Can we avoid COTS usage on SPF?
  • Redundant systems : can we mix COTS and “space designed” units?

Concern for Insurers to insure COTS

• Space environment effect

• • Vaccum (outgassing…), T° cycling, Radiation…
  • Validation from Design or Tests

• Reproducibility / traceability

• • Is the heritage applicable?
  • Confidence on Lot Acceptance Testing?
  • Qualification process to be adjusted?

• Long Term Behavior

• • Need to wait several years before validating a design
  • As for any new technology

• Failure propagation

• • New type of packaging
  • Hidden SPF

• Serial Risk

• • On-board degradation might be different
  • Failure on several satellites due to same root cause

Space Insurance Market

• Insurance Premium rate is based on
  • Technical merit (design, heritage)
  • Supply & Demand (i.e. Sum Insured vs. available capacity)

• Usage of COTS might have a impact on the premium today
• Large impact in case of (serial) failure due to COTS

Insurance Market Capacity in 2019

Space Insurance Market
Market Summary

Conclusion

• Designing space product remains a challenge

• • How COTS units can have the same reliability?
  • More margin? More testing? More screening?

• System design with COTS shall be at least as reliable as standard design 

• • Trade-off between COTS and redundancy / No SPF with COTS
  • COTS impact shall be clearly analyzed, understood and mitigated

• COTS usage is expected by insurers to increase

• • With care and higher premium at start
  • Insurance market might react sharply in case of serial issues with COTS
  • Development of COTS shall be spread enough over time